OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: GOP sets its fantasy Senate lineup

Establishment Republicans got every Senate candidate they wanted to win this primary election cycle. Now, it’s time to see if their "fantasy lineup" can perform. 

Former Alaska Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan’s (R) Tuesday win over Tea Party candidate Joe Miller (R) and Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) marks the last big Senate primary action of 2014, and in race after race, Republicans backed by the establishment won their races.

Now, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, American Crossroads, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other key cogs of the GOP establishment will be judged by how those candidates perform this fall.

Some candidates have performed better than others. While Republicans are thrilled with Rep. Cory GardnerCory GardnerInvestments in research and development are investments in American jobs EPA won’t pay Colorado county for some mine spill costs The Trail 2016: Trump applies presidential polish, Cruz adds VP MORE (R-Colo.) and Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R), Democrats argue that they’re in a better position in Alaska, Arkansas and North Carolina than many observers thought they’d be at this point, partly because of missteps by the GOP candidates.

But Republicans avoided any fatally flawed embarrassments like Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) and Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) in 2012, or Nevada’s Sharron Angle, Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell and Colorado’s Ken Buck in 2010. 

Instead, it has been Democratic recruitment failures in Montana and South Dakota that have put those races solidly in the Republican column. And in Iowa, Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce Braley10 rising stars in the energy and environment world DC delegate plans to confront GOP lawmaker calling for Washington recession DC delegate slams GOP lawmaker calling for Washington recession MORE’s (D) gaffes have given his party unnecessary headaches that could cost the race. 

With Republicans largely avoiding those missteps, they are now a good position to make a run at Senate control this fall with a far different slate of candidates than they’ve had the previous two cycles. Whether they can do so is completely within their hands now.



AK-SEN (BEGICH): The super-PAC backing Sen. Mark BegichMark BegichEx-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm Unable to ban Internet gambling, lawmakers try for moratorium Dem ex-lawmakers defend Schumer on Iran MORE (D-Alaska) released its first attack ad of the general election, ripping GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan less than 24 hours after his primary victory for his roots outside Alaska and his support for a controversial local mining project that some critics say could hurt commercial fishing.

Planned Parenthood Action Fund also launched an ad highlighting Sullivan's opposition to abortion, government funding for Planned Parenthood and ObamaCare's birth control coverage mandate. 

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Sen. Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellReid: Judiciary a 'rubber stamp' for Trump-McConnell Iran and heavy water: Five things to know Overnight Finance: House rejects financial adviser rule; Obama rebukes Sanders on big banks MORE (R-Ky.) and his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, traded jabs at the Kentucky Farm Bureau forum on Wednesday. Grimes hammered McConnell for his absences from the Agriculture Committee in favor of other events, while McConnell tied Grimes to Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry ReidFreedom Partners Action Fund launches ad buys in Wisconsin, Nevada Trump: 'I'd have to think about' Cruz for Supreme Court Reid: Judiciary a 'rubber stamp' for Trump-McConnell MORE (D-Nev.).

Grimes continued to face scrutiny over her use of a bus leased from her father’s company, which told one local Kentucky outlet that it doesn’t provide transportation rentals. Another company told the AP that her campaign’s payment for the bus was a “sweetheart deal.”

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Sen. Mark PryorMark PryorEx-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm Top Democrats are no advocates for DC statehood Ex-Sen. Landrieu joins law and lobby firm MORE (D-Ark.) is touting his vote for ObamaCare in a new campaign ad, one of the few times this cycle in which a red-state Democrat has promoted his support for the controversial law. The ad features Pryor with his father, popular former Sen. David Pryor (D-Ark.), talking about the family's experiences when Mark got cancer.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) told CNBC she supports reauthorizing the Export-Import Bank, breaking with conservatives who want to shutter it.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay HaganKay Hagan10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2016 Senate Republicans are feeling the 'Trump effect' Washington's lobby firms riding high MORE (D-N.C.) leads North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) 45 percent to 43 percent, with Libertarian Party candidate Sean Haugh at 5 percent in a new live-caller poll from USA Today and Suffolk University.

HI-SEN (SCHATZ): Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Hawaii) conceded her primary to Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), deciding not to contest election results from Friday that found Schatz up by 1,769 votes despite complaints about how the election was run.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): New Hampshire Republicans are attacking Sen. Jeanne Shaheen Jeanne ShaheenCarter pledges probe of sex assault testimony Pentagon looks to reduce billion energy bill Senate looks for easy wins amid 2016 gridlock MORE (D) for holding a September fundraiser with a “fat cat lobbyist” in Washington. 

Meanwhile, Shaheen toured the state with Agriculture Secretary Tom VilsackThomas J. VilsackUSDA: Farm-to-school programs help schools serve healthier meals OVERNIGHT MONEY: House poised to pass debt-ceiling bill MORE.

MT-SEN (OPEN): Rep. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) has a 20-point lead over newly named Democratic nominee Amanda Curtis, according to a new automated poll from the conservative Rasmussen Reports, the first public survey of the matchup. National Democrats have written off the race.



CA-10 (DENHAM): Beekeeper Michael Eggman (D) is out with his first ad, a biographical spot that also hits Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) for getting paid during the government shutdown.

NY-23 (REED): Rep. Tom Reed (R) accused his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Martha Robertson, of “specifically exploit[ing] an actual condition that millions of Americans struggle with every day” by using images of him in her ads he says were taken before he had gastric bypass surgery and lost 110 pounds.

IA-3 (OPEN): Former Iowa state Sen. Staci Appel (D) touts her ability to work across the aisle in her first ad.

AZ-01 (KIRKPATRICK): A new poll shows Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin locked in a statistical tie with state Rep. Adam Kwasman, while rancher Andy Kiehne comes in a close third. The Chamber of Commerce is investing “hundreds of thousands” in advertising boosting Tobin in the final week of their primary fight for the chance to take on endangered Democratic Rep. Ann KirkpatrickAnn KirkpatrickMoulitsas: 2016 dim for GOP House votes to restrict IRS hires and funding DNC head: Republicans ‘dropping like flies’ from convention MORE. Tobin on Wednesday issued a pledge to back whomever becomes the eventual nominee, and a call for unity within the party.

MI-1 (BENISHEK): Democrat Jerry Cannon touts his time in the military and as a sheriff in his first ad.

VA-2 (RIGELL): Democrat Suzanne Patrick touts her military service in her first ad. 

NE-2 (TERRY): Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.) trails Democrat Bruce Ashford 46 percent to 45 percent in an internal poll from Ashford’s campaign. 

NY-11 (GRIMM): Democrat Domenic Recchia touts his local connections — in both Brooklyn and Staten Island — in his first ad.

NJ-03 (OPEN): The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee changed an ad attacking Republican Tom MacArthur after MacArthur’s attorney protested on-screen text on the ad that suggested MacArthur was "accused of cheating disaster victims."


2016 WATCH

RYAN: Rep. Paul RyanPaul RyanOvernight Finance: Puerto Rico defaults on 2M Puerto Rico defaults on 2M debt payments The beginning of the end for Ted Cruz MORE (R-Wis.) dodged questions about his 2016 plans Wednesday but said he would be a big backer of Mitt Romney if he were to make another run for the White House.

“I’d drive his bus if he asked me to,” Ryan, who ran alongside Romney for vice president in 2012, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Ryan said that he believed that a lot of voters now had “buyer's remorse” about giving Obama a second term.

PERRY: Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) pleaded not guilty on Tuesday to charges that he abused his power. Perry entered the plea in a “waiver of arraignment” filed in a Travis County Court on Tuesday, the same day he turned himself in for booking at the local jail, where he had his mug shot and fingerprints taken.

Perry will speak Thursday at The Heritage Foundation in a speech titled, “The Border Crisis and the New Politics of Immigration.”

CLINTON: AFL-CIO Political Director Mike Podhorzer told reporters Wednesday the union is still withholding judgment on Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonDNC chairwoman: If up to me, I’d exclude independents from Dem primaries Trump: My rallies are 'safest place you can be' Reeling Cruz tries to survive Trump tide MORE’s potential run for president. “People want to see where she’ll be on working family issues, if she decides to run,” he said.



“I wasn't dancing with Bon Jovi. Actually, I was dancing with Jamie Foxx. So, if you're going to be cute we should get the story right.” — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) sparring with a woman at a local town hall

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