Independents breaking for Democratic incumbent
It’s a tough position for Mitchell, who beat Schweikert with 53 percent of the vote in 2008.
Mitchell’s saving grace may be independent voters. He’s leading
among them by 16 points, and independents make up the largest bloc of
undecided voters, which is a good sign for the incumbent in this
Also, more independents approve of President Obama’s job performance
(53 percent) than disapprove (46 percent). And since 72 percent of
independents say Obama is an important factor in their vote, that could
result in more support for Mitchell.
leads among male voters, while Mitchell leads with females. Older
voters tend to favor Schweikert, who’s been endorsed by former Alaska
Gov. Sarah Palin (R).
Mitchell was one of then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel’s (D-Ill.) top recruits in 2006, when he defeated three-term GOP Rep. J.D. Hayworth.
There’s been heavy party spending in this district. The National
Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent about $744,000 in
independent expenditures, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee (DCCC) has spent around $571,000.
The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 408 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.